Here are the essentials for what you need to know about the current market. The weekly market wrap-up charts, with more detail, are below.
The Bare Essentials
1) Inventory continued its decline. Down 36.16% since its November 2nd high of 1,355 homes for sale.
2) 52-Days to Pending for the top quartile of all listings in Seattle. This is the fastest this quartile has moved in any December in the past 3 years.
a. The second quartile is on track with the past few years as far as how quickly listings go pending in December. It’s the bottom two quartiles that are moving much slower than in years past (or houses priced $760,000 and below). From this, we can infer that competition is still relatively healthy for houses priced above $760k, but relatively very soft for homes under that mark.
3) Median house price remained steady this past week. Prices were up $950.
In summary, inventory is holding up its end of the bargain for hitting the reset button on Puget Sound’s housing market. Come mid to late February, it looks like we’ll be on track for similar inventory levels as were seen in previous years at that time. With a fresh start on the supply side of things, the 2019 market will be squarely dictated by whether buyers show up. As we’re all aware, they didn’t show up in the last half of 2018, and median house prices slowly deteriorate off the highs reached earlier in the year.
Interest Rate Check-In
Per Bankrate.com, the 30 Year Mortgage interest rate remained steady at 4.75%, with .35 in discount and origination points. Rates have fallen .35% in the last month and a half. Rates are .65% higher than the 52-week low interest rate and are near their highest levels since February 2011.
Mortgage Rates This Week
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained steady this week at 4.75 percent, according to Bankrate’s weekly survey of large lenders. A year ago, it was 4.14 percent. Four weeks ago, the rate was 5.01 percent. The 30-year fixed-rate average for this week is 0.35 percentage points below the 52-week high of 5.10 percent and is 0.65 percentage points above the 52-week low of 4.10 percent.
The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.35 discount and origination points.
Over the past 52 weeks, the 30-year fixed has averaged 4.69 percent. This week’s rate is 0.06 percentage points higher than the 52-week average.
• The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.13 percent from 4.21 percent.
• The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell to 4.31 percent from 4.35 percent.
• The 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgage fell to 4.63 percent from 4.72 percent.
• At the current 30-year fixed rate, you’ll pay $521.65 each month for every $100,000 you borrow, down from $526.48 last week.
• At the current 15-year fixed rate, you’ll pay $746.22 each month for every $100,000 you borrow, down from $750.26 last week.
• At the current 5/1 ARM rate, you’ll pay $495.46 each month for every $100,000 you borrow, down from $497.81 last week.
Results of Bankrate.com’s weekly national survey of large lenders conducted December 19, 2018, and the effect on monthly payments for a $165,000 loan:
The “Bankrate.com National Average,” or “national survey of large lenders,” is conducted weekly. The results of this survey are quoted in our weekly articles and national media outlets. To conduct the National Average survey, Bankrate obtains rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 large U.S. markets. In the Bankrate.com national survey, our Market Analysis team gathers rates and/or yields on banking deposits, loans, and mortgages. We’ve conducted this survey in the same manner for more than 30 years, and because it’s consistently done the way it is, it gives an accurate national apples-to-apples comparison.
I hope this market update finds you well and enjoying the holiday season. This gap between Christmas and New Year’s is always a great time for reflection of the previous year and goal setting for the next. This past 12 months was a big year of transition with me breaking off from the team I was on and becoming my own loan originator and changing company’s which also involved a temporary office for 5 months while our new Seattle branch was being built out. Now that things have settled down with all the change, 2019 will be a very focused year for me as I build my own business and do everything I can to help the people around me do the same. I hope to share some goals in next week’s market update, and I’d love to know yours if you are willing to share!
Now for Part II of the holidays – New Year’s!
City of Seattle Stats for Single Family Residences – 12.28.18
These charts are Seattle Specific, but the Puget Sound Real Estate Market mirrors the Seattle market.
Scott Sheridan is a Loan Officer with Primary Residential Mortgage, Inc. Being in the mortgage industry for three years, Scott brings a fresh millennial flair to the industry. He is well-versed in the most modern, efficient, and convenient ways to get things done. Scott combines these skills with a genuine love of his work and recent experience in what is it like to be a first and second-time home buyer. You can follow Scott’s weekly market updates on his PRMI Facebook Page.